Written by: Carlos Martin Rivals, General Manager — Floating Offshore Wind, Dajin Offshore
Introduction
When I began working in floating wind 12 years ago as Project Director for WindFloat Atlantic (WFA), only a handful of “Don Quixote’s” attended floating wind conferences, convinced that this technology would one day reach the mainstream.
Early successes such as Hywind Scotland, WFA, Kincardine, and a few demonstration units convinced many developers that floating wind could quickly open a new Eldorado. Development efforts multiplied, and significant seabed capacity was awarded in the UK (>15 GW across multiple floating projects in ScotWind and 5.4 GW in INTOG), Korea (~6 GW in Ulsan alone), California (4.6 GW), or Italy (>9 GW on a first‑come, first‑served basis), to cite a few examples.
When inflation and unrealistic price expectations hit offshore wind hard in 2023, floating wind was particularly affected. Some players, such as Ørsted , RWE or TotalEnergies, decided to leave floating wind altogether and focus on bottom‑fixed, while others delayed or downsized their floating projects. Some even declared floating wind “death before birth.”
So, where do we stand today—and what can we realistically expect going forward? This article argues that, with some perspective, the floating wind industry has nonetheless built a solid foundation. Current costs (around ~€250/MWh) remain penalized by the limited scale of existing projects and cumulative installed capacity (~260 MW), yet they are lower than the historical costs of other renewables. For instance, solar PV showed a cost of ~$460/MWh with ~40 GW of cumulated installed capacity.
The next few years will be crucial. There is a clear path toward FID for the first ~1 GW of commercial floating wind projects before 2027, and as much as 5 GW by 2030—provided the industry addresses several remaining challenges. Such milestones would reduce costs and unlock mass deployment in the 2030s, supported by a vast global project pipeline and strong latent demand in countries that require floating wind to meet their decarbonization goals.
Short‑Term Objective: Igniting the Industry
2024 marked a turning point with several important developments, even though they did not always reach the headlines:
- Nearly 2 GW of floating wind projects secured offtake support schemes in the UK (AR6), France (AO5, AO6), and Korea (2nd PPA tender).
- Governments announced additional floating tenders in France (AO9 and AO10), yearly Allocation Rounds with a specific floating pot in the UK, Korea (4th offshore tender in early 2026 and potentially more), Norway (Utsira Nord), and Japan (a floating wind tender is expected in 2029).
Meanwhile, the supply chain advanced significantly:
- Compelling EPC offerings emerge from players such as Ekwill, Saipem, and Aker Solutions.
- New floater designs are being proved in the water, including MingYang Electric’s OceanX prototype, Ocergy’s Cuzlean, or Stiesdal’s Pentland demo project.
- Port infrastructure is expanding, as at Adersier (Scotland, UK).
- Fabrication capacity is also expanding, including new plants designed specifically for offshore wind such as Dajin’s facility in Tangshan.
There is a genuine opportunity to kickstart commercial project execution, with realistic possibilities for FID in two key timeframes.
500-1,000 MW achieving FID before end‑2027:
- UK: GreenVolt (sponsored by Vårgrønn and Flotation Energy), totaling 400 MW, could become the first commercial project to reach FID.
- UK: Two to three additional 100 MW projects are expected in AR7; all are fully consented with grid connections before 2030, could reach FID soon after GreenVolt
- Korea: it is to be seen if the Bandibuli/Firefly project (750 MW, owned by Equinor) will proceed after failing to meet the deadline to sign its awarded administrative contract, but if it does it could reach FID in 2027.
Up to 4 additional GW achieving FID before end‑2030 (up to ~5 GW total):
- France: Three 250 MW CfDs—Pennavel (BayWa + Elicio), Narbonnaise ( OW Ocean Winds), and Méditerranée Grand Large (EDF + Maple Power)—could reach FID this decade if they can meet relatively low CfD levels. AO9 could add three 500 MW extensions which could possibly also reach FID this decade.
- UK: AR8 (2026), AR9 (2027) or event AR10 (2028) could add 1–2 GW in their floating pots
- Korea: A second 750 MW project is expected in early 2026 and potentially two more by end‑2027.
- Norway: Equinor / Vårgrønn and EDF / DWO will compete for a 500 MW capex‑support‑based tender in ~2 years.
Hence, there is a very concrete path towards ~5 GW of cumulative FID by 2030 which would in turn move down the cost curve and prove that floating wind is not a niche but a mainstream technology. Yet several cross‑cutting challenges remain.
Key Challenges and Paths Forward
1. Floating Technology Selection
Challenge: With 80–90 concepts at varying technology readiness levels, selecting the right platform is difficult. Chosen designs must be cost‑effective within CfD / PPA frameworks, industrializable at scale, and bankable.
Way forward: First projects should focus on concepts with proven prototypes or strong EPC backing that rely on existing supply chains without requiring major new investments. Steel semi‑submersibles with a central column and three outer ballast tanks remain strong candidates.
2. Manufacturing Capacity
Challenge: Existing production capacity in Europe and Korea is insufficient to deliver 5 GW, and time is needed to scale facilities and train workers.
Way forward: Leverage the global supply chain. European suppliers will likely dominate site characterization, engineering, WTGs, electrical equipment, dynamic cables, moorings, financing, and O&M. Labor‑intensive fabrication activities such as towers and foundations can be more competitively produced at scale in Asian markets.
3. WTG Supply
Challenge: Developers face major difficulties securing turbines for floating projects as major OEMs prioritize easier and less risky bottom‑fixed orders. Smaller projects and developers with limited pipelines face even greater challenges.
Way forward: Governments must build robust demand signals—clear multi‑year tender schedules and firm capacity targets—to attract OEM attention. In parallel, opening competition to new OEMs, including Chinese manufacturers, would increase developers’ negotiation leverage.
4. Validation of Five Enabling Technologies
Several floating‑specific technologies require commercial‑scale validation:
- Mechanical final assembly: Innovative mechanical connectors (pins, bolts) could reduce welding needs, port space, and execution time.
- On‑site large‑component replacement: Tow‑to‑port must remain feasible as the last resource solution, but on‑site replacement of major WTG components would bring major costs reduction and availability benefits.
- Reversible mooring connections: Faster hook‑off/hook‑in systems would reduce complexity and downtime.
- Detachable dynamic cable systems: Quick‑release solutions enabling power flow even when turbines are at port would be advantageous.
- Heavy pads for ring cranes: Necessary for WTG integration and some O&M operations, ideally within 200–300 miles of project sites.
Way forward: Public R&D and infrastructure funding—often spread too thin among too many initiatives—should prioritize these five technologies. Certification bodies must support validation and long‑term reliability to reassure lenders.
5. Risk Management and Bankability
Challenge: While some pre‑commercial projects have achieved quasi‑non‑recourse financing, scaling this to large commercial projects remains difficult.
Way forward: Developers must proactively manage risks—technological, commercial, and execution‑related—well ahead of FID. EPC contracting strategies can reduce risk exposure. Institutional lenders (e.g., EIB) and export credit agencies capable of assuming more risks than commercial banks will likely play a strong role and governments may consider non‑cash risk‑sharing mechanisms to support financial close.
Medium‑Term Opportunity: Mass Deployment
If the above objectives are met, floating wind could enter a virtuous cycle of scale‑driven cost reduction that should continue in the 2030s
- Learning effects and economies of scale will reduce costs across the supply chain.
- Innovation in platform design—including concrete structures, twin turbines, and multi‑leg towers—could deliver major breakthroughs over the next decade.
- Process innovation will improve final assembly, load‑out, anchoring systems, and O&M.
- Electrical systems will evolve from fixed‑bottom substations to floating or seabed‑mounted alternatives, enabling deeper‑water development.
The list of future cost‑reduction avenues could fill an entire article, but the message is clear: the potential is enormous.
Given the vast global pipeline (up to 244 GW according to International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)), sustained scale effects could trigger mass deployment in the 2030s, with far‑reaching implications:
- Countries such as Japan, Korea, the UK, France, and Italy would gain a reliable clean‑energy option aligned with their net‑zero ambitions.
- The global supply chain would see significant job creation.
- Investors would access a rapidly growing sector with improving risk profiles.
Conclusion
As the dust settles from cycles of hope, hype, and hesitation, a real opportunity is emerging to ignite floating wind at scale. Achieving ~5 GW of FID before 2030 is ambitious but feasible—requiring progress in floater selection, WTG supply, and targeted innovation. Success will depend on leveraging the global supply chain, resisting protectionist impulses, strengthening industry collaboration, and ensuring continued government support.
The challenges are significant, but the prize is much greater: mass deployment in the 2030s, driven by an increasingly cost‑competitive technology that could play a pivotal role in the global journey toward net‑zero.
About The Author
Carlos Martin Rivals is an international renewable-energy executive in floating offshore wind. As General Manager for Floating Offshore Wind at Dajin Offshore, he leads global commercial and technical strategy for floating-foundation fabrication. He previously founded and served as CEO of BlueFloat Energy, developing multi-GW floating-wind portfolios across Europe and Asia-Pacific. He started his career in floating wind at EDPR as Project Director for WindFloat Atlantic, a 25MW pre-commercial floating wind farm. He previously served as Associate Principal at McKinsey & Company. Carlos also teaches Strategy at IE Business School.
References
https://ore.catapult.org.uk/resource-hub/blog/analysing-scotwind-leasing-results
US Department of Energy – 2010 Solar Technologies Market Report (Kristen Ardani, Roberto Margolis, NREL)
IRENA – Renewable Power Generation costs in 2023 Executive Summary
IRENA – Floating Offshore Wind Outlook 2024 – Jaidev Dhavle (IRENA) under the guidance of Francisco Boshell (IRENA), and Roland Roesch (Director, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre).